- Will Agbu Kefas win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?71¢71%
- Will Emmanuel Bwacha win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?19¢19%
- Will Shiddi Usman Danjuma win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?6¢6%
- Will Aboki Stephen Bayonga win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?5¢5%
Agbu Kefas holds a strong lead in the February 2027 Taraba gubernatorial contest as the APC nominee and incumbent, following his decisive primary victory and recent alignment with the ruling federal party. Traders price him highest after his October meetings with President Tinubu, public declaration of statewide APC support, and receipt of governance awards, alongside tribunal affirmation of his prior mandate and federal backing for state projects. Emmanuel Bwacha, the PDP candidate and former APC contender, trails amid campaign launch and public disputes over state financing agreements, while the remaining 17 INEC-listed aspirants, including Shiddi Usman Danjuma and Aboki Stephen Bayonga, register minimal positioning. The distribution reflects Kefas’s incumbency, party resources, and recent momentum against a fragmented field.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Taraba State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.