- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?93¢93%
- Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?4¢4%
- Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?3¢3%
- Will Jim Jordan be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?2¢2%
- Will Steve Scalise be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?2¢2%
- Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?<1¢<1%
Democrats' decisive victory in the 2026 midterm elections, securing a substantial House majority projected near 249 seats, has positioned Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the clear consensus choice for speaker when the new Congress convenes in January. Traders reflect this outcome in the elevated pricing for Jeffries, driven by the party's unified caucus support following gains across battleground and Republican-leaning districts. No credible internal challengers have emerged among Democratic leadership, including potential alternatives like Katherine Clark or Pete Aguilar. Limited upside remains for Republican figures such as Jim Jordan or Mike Johnson absent an unforeseen reversal in certified results or a breakdown in party-line voting on the floor.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.