- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be less than 250,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 250,000 and 275,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 275,000 and 300,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 300,000 and 325,000?52¢52%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 325,000 and 350,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 350,000 and 375,000?5¢5%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be between 375,000 and 400,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota be 400,000 or more?5¢5%
South Dakota’s November 3, 2026 general election produced 310,298 ballots cast from 628,563 registered voters, for 49.37% turnout—well below the 59.4% recorded in the 2022 midterm. The Senate contest between incumbent Republican Mike Rounds and independent Brian Bengs was not viewed as highly competitive, reducing voter mobilization across parties. Lower enthusiasm followed a less contested primary cycle, complex ballot measures that may have confused some participants, and limited Democratic turnout in a heavily Republican state. These factors aligned with historical patterns of depressed participation in non-presidential years lacking tight statewide races. Trader consensus now centers on the 300K-325K bucket at 89.5% as final certified totals remain near the preliminary count, with narrower adjacent ranges reflecting only minor outstanding provisional or late-reported ballots.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Dakota, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.