- Sean Duffy announced out as Secretary of Transportation by November 30?10¢10%
- Sean Duffy announced out as Secretary of Transportation by December 31?20¢20%
- 10%November 30$900.8 Vol.
- 19.5%December 31$917.3 Vol.
Sean Duffy has served as U.S. Secretary of Transportation since Senate confirmation on January 28, 2025, and remains in the role as of November 14, 2026. He continues to direct FAA responses to operational issues, including the nationwide ground stop on November 13 triggered by telecommunications problems at air traffic facilities, while requesting emergency congressional funding of up to $50 billion for air traffic control modernization. Recent department actions include regulatory streamlining for commercial space launches, revocation of unauthorized electronic logging devices in trucking, and interagency efforts on unmanned aerial threats. No official statements, Senate actions, or administration announcements indicate plans for his departure, and cabinet tenure typically extends through the presidential term absent resignation, removal, or confirmation of a successor. Traders assessing timing markets should monitor White House personnel updates, congressional funding votes, and any shifts in FAA leadership.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sean Duffy’s departure through resignation or removal as Secretary of Transportation is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Sean Duffy, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Duffy has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as Secretary of Transportation. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as Secretary of Transportation, including to take another role in the Trump administration, and removal includes dismissal or termination by the President. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Sean Duffy and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.