- SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?4¢4%
The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, 6-3 decision in Trump v. Barbara resolved the challenge to President Trump’s executive order restricting birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause, with Chief Justice Roberts writing for a majority that included both conservative and liberal justices. The administration did not file a petition for rehearing by the July 27 deadline, despite earlier public statements indicating intent to do so. The Court has not granted rehearing in an argued case for more than five decades, and no new docket developments or intervening litigation have altered that posture ahead of the December 31, 2026, resolution date. Traders view these procedural and institutional barriers as decisive.
Rules
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.