- Will Caroline Émond win the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election?72¢72%
- Will Chantal Soucy win the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election?24¢24%
- Will Mathieu Boisvert win the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election?8¢8%
- Will Luc Brodeur-Jourdain win the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election?5¢5%
The by-election in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton, called for December 7, 2026, after the resignation of independent MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, centers on a contest between Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Émond and Liberal candidate Chantal Soucy. Émond’s nomination in July 2026 highlighted her background in international trade, agriculture, and dairy policy, aligning with the riding’s agri-food economy and the party’s strong 2025 result near 44 percent. Soucy, a former CAQ MNA for the overlapping provincial riding who joined the Liberals in late October, brings local name recognition and legislative experience that has narrowed but not erased the Bloc’s projected lead in recent models. Conservative and NDP candidates trail further behind, with forecasts assigning the Bloc roughly two-thirds probability of victory based on historical patterns and current polling trends.
Rules
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).