- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?66¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent pre-election surveys placed the SPD narrowly ahead of the Greens in Saxony-Anhalt, with both parties polling in the low single digits near the five-percent threshold and facing pressure from voter shifts toward the AfD and Linke. Late-campaign momentum for the Greens narrowed that gap in some final polls, while the SPD maintained a modest edge in others amid stable support for the outgoing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition partners. On election day itself, exit polls and initial projections showed the two parties essentially tied around eight to nine percent, with minor variations depending on the institute and the pace of counting in urban versus rural districts. High overall turnout and the performance of smaller parties such as the BSW and FDP could still influence the final margin between the SPD and Greens. Trader pricing reflects this tight race and the limited remaining data releases before official certification.