- Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?85¢85%
- Will Lidia Rojas Fabro win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?9¢9%
- Will Marybel Villegas Canché win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Rafael Marín Mollinedo win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?4¢4%
- Will Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?3¢3%
- Will Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?3¢3%
- Will Reyna Tamayo Carballo win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?3¢3%
- Will José Luis Pech Várguez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Alexa Murguía Trujillo win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Roberto Palazuelos Badeaux win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Amalia Castilla Madrid win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?<1¢<1%
- Will Mayuli Martínez Simón win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?<1¢<1%
Eugenio Segura Vázquez holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Quintana Roo governor market after Morena’s September 2026 internal polls and national leadership designated him coordinator for the Defense of the Transformation, positioning him as the presumptive 4T coalition nominee for the June 2027 election. Recent October polling shows him leading general-election scenarios at 42%, well ahead of opposition figures such as Mayuli Martínez Simón, Lidia Rojas Fabro, and others in the single digits, reflecting Morena’s 45%+ party identification advantage and the coalition’s unified backing. Traders assign single-digit odds to remaining internal rivals and opposition candidates because the nomination process has concluded and the ruling coalition’s structural lead has not shifted in the past month. The state electoral institute approved the 2027 calendar in October, with the governor taking office in September.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Quintana Roo on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Quintana Roo and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Quintana Roo and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.