- Will the Republican Party win the PA-05 House seat?2¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the PA-05 House seat?98¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon faces Republican Nick Manganaro in Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district on November 3, 2026. The district's D+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and other forecasters reflect its strong structural advantage for the Democratic nominee. Scanlon advanced unopposed through the May primary in a suburban Philadelphia area seat that has favored Democrats in recent cycles. Traders assign the Republican Party just 1.8% implied probability, consistent with the absence of competitive polling, fundraising gaps, or notable campaign developments that would indicate a realistic path to victory. Late-breaking national shifts, an unforeseen scandal, or extreme turnout anomalies remain the primary variables that could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.