- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?3¢3%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 900,000 and 1,000,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,000,000 and 1,100,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?96¢96%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,200,000 and 1,300,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,300,000 and 1,400,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be 1,400,000 or more?2¢2%
Oklahoma's November 3, 2026, Senate election produced roughly 1.11 million total votes cast, aligning with the market's strong consensus around the 1.1M-1.2M range. As a solidly Republican state with an open seat and limited competitiveness in the general election, Oklahoma historically sees lower midterm participation than presidential years, a pattern reinforced by the most recent results showing turnout below 2022 and 2018 levels despite elevated early voting. Traders appear to view the preliminary statewide totals and registration data as confirming this baseline range, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in pricing that treats the outcome as largely settled pending final certification. Late provisional or absentee ballots could still nudge the count modestly higher, though current reporting indicates little room for shifts outside the dominant bin.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.