- Will Mikio Shimoji win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Takashi Higa win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Chosuke Yara win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Shun Kaneshima win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Masahiro Sueyoshi win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?38¢
- Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?64¢
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Genta Koja holds the leading position in trader consensus for the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election, reflecting his backing from the Liberal Democratic Party and aligned parties plus voter emphasis on economic growth, employment, and relations with the central government over base relocation issues. Incumbent Denny Tamaki, supported by opposition groups including the Constitutional Democratic Party and Japanese Communist Party, trails amid a campaign where polls show the two running closely with many undecided voters. Recent shifts in debate toward pocketbook concerns and Koja’s pledges to improve Tokyo-Okinawa ties have contributed to the current pricing, while the other five candidates remain marginal factors given the effective two-way contest. The outcome hinges on turnout and late-campaign momentum in the final week.