- Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?1¢
- Will the PLQ win 44 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?6¢
- Will the PLQ win fewer than 28 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?22¢
- Will the PLQ win 28-31 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?29¢
- Will the PLQ win 32-35 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?22¢
- Will the PLQ win 36-39 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?18¢
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Trader consensus shows a tightly contested outlook for the Parti Libéral du Québec seat total, with the three leading ranges each below 30 percent probability and clustered between 28 and 35 seats. This balance reflects variable regional polling trends, the first-past-the-post electoral system that converts modest vote swings into larger seat shifts, and ongoing competition from other parties for similar voter bases. Recent campaign positioning on economic and language issues, combined with turnout patterns in swing ridings, continue to keep projected seat counts within a narrow band. Scheduled party events or leadership developments through the fall could alter momentum before the election date.