NY-11 House Election Winner

PoliticsElectionsUS ElectionMidtermsNov 4 ElectionsHouse ElectionsNew York Midterm
Start Date
2026-01-28
End Date
2026-11-03
24h Volume
$8K
Total Volume
$25K
  • Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?7¢
  • Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat?94¢

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

NY-11's Republican incumbent Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding lead in trader consensus due to the district's longstanding partisan lean, encompassing Staten Island and parts of southern Brooklyn, where Republican candidates have consistently secured victories in recent cycles. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting stable voter registration advantages, incumbency benefits, and limited Democratic infrastructure. Michael DeCillis, the Democratic nominee, trails significantly with little evidence of momentum shifts from recent primaries or fundraising data. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national Democratic surge, major scandals or health developments affecting the incumbent, or unusually high opposition turnout in the November 2026 general election window.