- Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?40¢40%
- Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?23¢23%
- Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?21¢21%
- Will Raúl Lozano Caballero win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?7¢7%
- Will Fernando Margáin Berlanga win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?7¢7%
- Will Judith Díaz Delgado win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?6¢6%
- Will Félix Arratia Cruz win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?6¢6%
- Will Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Jesús Alberto Elizondo win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Carlos de la Fuente Flores win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?5¢5%
- Will Miguel Flores Serna win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?4¢4%
Recent October 2026 surveys show a fragmented contest for the June 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, with Movimiento Ciudadano, a potential PAN-PRI alliance, and Morena running neck-and-neck in party-level support near 23-30 percent each. Mariana Rodríguez Cantú of MC edges some head-to-head matchups at roughly 26 percent implied probability, closely followed by Adrián de la Garza Santos of the PRI-PAN bloc at 24-27 percent and Clara Luz Flores Carrales of Morena around 18-23 percent. A majority of voters express preference for a change in state direction, yet no option has consolidated a durable lead. Internal party deliberations—MC evaluating more than ten profiles with a candidate decision expected by early 2027—along with Morena’s open field and alliance negotiations sustain the tight trader pricing, where small shifts in candidate selection or polling momentum could widen gaps ahead of the vote.
Rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nuevo León on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nuevo León and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nuevo León and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.