- Nothing Ever Happens: 202686¢
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "Yes" (nothing happens) near 86.5% because none of the market's predefined triggers have materialized through late August 2026. These include leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, a China-Taiwan invasion, full U.S. military invasion of Iran or Iranian regime collapse, Russia striking a NATO member, Bitcoin extremes at $1 million or $10,000, a Republican Senate supermajority trifecta, Trump acquiring Greenland, Jeffrey Epstein reappearing alive, or extreme natural disasters such as a 9.0+ earthquake, VEI-6+ volcano, or major meteor strike. Ongoing Middle East tensions, including Iran-related naval and sanctions activity plus Strait of Hormuz negotiations, and scattered legislative or electoral developments have not crossed any resolution thresholds. With four months remaining, the absence of sudden escalations or verified breakthroughs continues to support elevated "Yes" pricing.