- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be less than 3,500,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 3,500,000 and 3,700,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 3,700,000 and 3,900,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 3,900,000 and 4,100,000?35¢35%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 4,100,000 and 4,300,000?46¢46%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 4,300,000 and 4,500,000?1¢1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be between 4,500,000 and 4,700,000?32¢32%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be 4,700,000 or more?2¢2%
Strong early voting in North Carolina has driven trader focus on the 4.1M–4.3M and 3.9M–4.1M turnout ranges. Through November 2, over 2.83 million ballots were returned, up roughly 30 percent from the comparable point in 2022, with Democrats casting 31 percent more ballots and unaffiliated voters 51 percent more while Republicans rose 9 percent. This surge reflects heightened mobilization in a competitive open-seat contest featuring Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley, plus elevated participation among unaffiliated voters. Election Day voting patterns remain the key variable, as Republicans have historically outperformed on the final day relative to early voting shares. The narrow spread between the top two outcomes captures uncertainty over whether the early-voting momentum will produce a total near or modestly above recent midterm levels once all valid ballots are counted.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.