- Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?96¢96%
- Will Enrico Schult be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?3¢3%
- Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?2¢2%
- Will Daniel Peters be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?1¢1%
- Will Claudia Müller be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?<1¢<1%
- Will Simone Oldenburg be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?<1¢<1%
- Will Jakob Schirmer be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?<1¢<1%
Manuela Schwesig leads the market at 78.1% due to her incumbency and the post-election coalition arithmetic in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The September 20, 2026, Landtag election produced an AfD plurality at 38.2% but left the party isolated by a cross-party firewall, while the SPD secured 35.5% and joined Linke and Greens (39 seats total) in ongoing negotiations toward a majority government. Schwesig has signaled continued focus on state leadership, with re-election scheduled for November 17 after coalition talks conclude. Lower probabilities for AfD figures like Leif-Erik Holm (2.1%) and Enrico Schult (6.6%) reflect their parties' exclusion from viable governing majorities. Recent Insa polling shows AfD support rising further, yet trader consensus centers on Schwesig anchoring the next administration.
Rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Ministerpräsident of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Ministerpräsident will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Ministerpräsident takes office by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.