- Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?62¢62%
- Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?36¢36%
- Will Green Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
- Will New Zealand First Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
- Will ACT New Zealand win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
- Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1%
Recent polling averages place Labour and National nearly tied in party vote share near 28-29 percent each, with the Greens, ACT, NZ First, and Opportunity trailing but potentially influencing seat totals under the MMP system. This closeness, combined with overhang effects and threshold dynamics for smaller parties, underpins trader consensus on Labour as the likeliest second-place finisher ahead of the November 7 election. Late October and early November surveys from firms including 1News-Verian and Taxpayers’ Union-Curia show Labour maintaining a narrow edge or parity in several releases, while National’s support has fluctuated amid cost-of-living and coalition arithmetic concerns. The market’s implied probabilities reflect this seat-projection sensitivity rather than any single poll lead.
Rules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).