- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be less than 650,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 650,000 and 700,000?9¢9%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 700,000 and 750,000?59¢59%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 750,000 and 800,000?46¢46%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 800,000 and 850,000?34¢34%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be between 850,000 and 900,000?4¢4%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska be 900,000 or more?<1¢<1%
Trader consensus centers on 700K-750K total ballots in the Nebraska U.S. Senate contest, reflecting standard midterm participation levels adjusted for current conditions. Forecasts from multiple models project totals near 719,000 to 773,000, consistent with recent midterm figures of roughly 683,000 ballots in 2022 and 707,000 in 2018. Early and absentee returns through early November reached approximately 215,000–237,000, tracking modestly above comparable periods in prior cycles amid a closely watched race between incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn. The competitive Senate dynamic, combined with steady registration near 1.26 million and typical midterm ballot participation rates of 49–65 percent, supports the central range while limiting upside to presidential-year volumes. Historical patterns and pre-election indicators position outcomes above 800,000 or below 650,000 as lower-probability deviations.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Nebraska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.