- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?97¢97%
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?3¢3%
Democrat Chuck Hubbard holds a commanding lead in the NC-05 House race after unofficial results showed him ahead of incumbent Republican Virginia Foxx by 99 votes out of roughly 285,000 cast on November 3. Strong Democratic performance in urban precincts of Guilford County and Watauga County, including notable student turnout, created the narrow edge in what had been a safely Republican district. Remaining provisional ballots, estimated at up to 3,000 across the district, plus military and overseas ballots accepted through November 12, are now under review ahead of county canvasses by November 13. Historical patterns suggest these ballots are unlikely to reverse the margin, supporting trader consensus around Hubbard’s victory, though Foxx could still prevail if the outstanding votes break heavily in her favor or trigger a recount.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).