- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?6¢
Recent Houthi missile strikes on Riyadh’s airport on October 10 have intensified scrutiny of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Yemen policy and exposed gaps in Saudi air defenses, prompting questions about his leadership amid ongoing economic strains on Vision 2030 projects. King Salman’s recent health issues, including a lung infection, have prompted official reassurances from the crown prince, who continues to chair cabinet sessions and advance reforms. Analysts note MBS’s centralized control, sidelining of rivals since 2017, and lack of organized internal opposition make abrupt removal unlikely, though diplomatic and fiscal pressures could influence royal family dynamics or succession timing. Scheduled events such as the postponed Future Investment Initiative and any shifts in U.S. or regional alliances remain potential catalysts within the resolution window.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.