- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.5% or more?<1¢<1%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.2%-1.5%?4¢4%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.9%-1.2%?<1¢<1%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.6%-0.9%?16¢16%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.3%-0.6%?<1¢<1%
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0%-0.3%?3¢3%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0%-0.3%?45¢45%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.3%-0.6%?24¢24%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.6%-0.9%?21¢21%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.9%-1.2%?5¢5%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.2%-1.5%?17¢17%
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 1.5% or more?2¢2%
Democratic challenger Scott Colom holds a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race, with unofficial results showing margins under 0.3 percentage points after more than 95% of votes are counted. Colom leads by roughly 1,100 votes or fewer in preliminary tallies, reflecting stronger-than-expected Democratic performance in several counties that favored Hyde-Smith in 2020. Thousands of provisional affidavit ballots and late mail ballots remain outstanding, primarily in Democratic-leaning areas, keeping the outcome unresolved and the final margin uncertain. An independent candidate drawing about 2% has further narrowed the gap between the major-party contenders. Traders have priced the smallest Colom victory bucket highest, consistent with the current count and the limited remaining ballots that could shift totals by only a few thousand votes.
Rules
The 2026 Mississippi Senate election was held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Mississippi Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.