- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?100¢100%
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person A win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person B win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person C win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person D win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person E win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person F win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person G win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person H win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person I win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
- Will Person J win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?0¢0%
Abdul El-Sayed secured the Michigan Senate seat vacated by retiring Democrat Gary Peters, with election-night projections and partial vote counts confirming his victory over Republican Mike Rogers by a roughly six-point margin. The outcome followed a contentious general election marked by attacks on El-Sayed's progressive platform, foreign policy positions, and background, alongside a late Democratic primary endorsement reversal by Haley Stevens that failed to shift momentum. Rogers, a former congressman, positioned himself as a moderate alternative but could not overcome Democratic turnout advantages in key areas. The resulting trader consensus at near-certainty levels aligns with these confirmed results and historical patterns of open-seat retention in the state, though final certification remains the formal resolution trigger.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.