- Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?73¢73%
- Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?12¢12%
- Will the Labor Party (PT) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?<1¢<1%
- Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?10¢10%
- Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?4¢4%
- Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?7¢7%
Recent national polling for Mexico’s June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election shows Morena maintaining a wide lead, leaving PAN positioned ahead of PRI, PVEM, MC, and PT among opposition parties. PAN’s edge stems from its stronger vote intention in multiple surveys, separate contestation after ending its prior alliance with PRI, and competitive standing in several state capitals and gubernatorial races. The fragmented opposition vote, with no unified front emerging, reinforces trader expectations that PAN will secure the second-highest seat total under proportional representation rules, while smaller allied or minor parties trail further behind. Upcoming candidate selections and alliance talks remain the main variables that could still shift relative positioning before election day.
Rules
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).