- McDonald’s in Cuba announced in 2026?4¢4%
The US trade embargo, reinforced by tightened 2026 sanctions under the Trump administration that limit dealings with Cuban state entities while permitting only private-sector transactions, remains the dominant barrier preventing McDonald’s from announcing operations on the island. Cuban Decree 167, enacted in August after June announcements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, authorizes foreign food-service franchises in principle, yet no agreements, licensing deals, or corporate commitments have materialized amid unresolved issues over profit repatriation, supply chains, and sanctions compliance. Trader consensus at 96% against an announcement by year-end reflects these structural constraints and the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. A late-2026 policy shift easing embargo restrictions or an unexpected bilateral accord could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify. The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.