- Max Miller out as US Rep by December 31, 2026?6¢6%
Traders assign a 93.5% probability that Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) remains in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting his continued candidacy, Republican institutional support, and the absence of any mechanism or announcement forcing an earlier exit. Miller, representing Ohio’s 7th District, rebuffed summer 2026 calls from figures including Sen. Bernie Moreno (his former father-in-law) and Sen. Jon Husted to withdraw amid domestic-abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he has denied. The withdrawal window closed in August without his cooperation, leaving him as the Republican nominee on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent developments show sustained, if measured, GOP backing: Trump has endorsed him publicly, the NRCC has aired ads, and Miller has loaned his campaign substantial funds while releasing new campaign material addressing the allegations. No criminal charges have been filed against Miller, and the race—now rated a toss-up due to the scandal—remains on track for voters to decide. With the election occurring before year-end and no resignation signals or legal barriers to completing his current term (ending January 2027), the consensus centers on continuity through December absent unforeseen developments.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Max Miller's departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Max Miller, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Max Miller has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Max Miller and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.