- Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?95¢
- Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?4¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding position in the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris's 25-point 2024 margin, and Markey's established Senate record since 2013. Recent polls show Markey consolidating support ahead of the September 1 Democratic primary against Seth Moulton, with leads expanding to double digits in late August surveys, while general-election matchups against Republican John Deaton project Markey margins of 20 points or more. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus at 94.1% for a Democratic winner. Factors that could narrow this include a late primary upset by Moulton shifting dynamics or unusually low turnout, though structural barriers in the state remain significant.