- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?51¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?5¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more?<1¢
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by at least 5%?<1¢
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 5–10%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 10–15%?2¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?4¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%?9¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?51¢
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Markey’s decisive primary win over Moulton on September 1 produced a margin consistent with the market’s leading 25–30 point bracket, as early returns showed the incumbent capturing roughly 65–74 percent of the vote in a contest defined by ideological rather than generational divides. Traders priced in this outcome after Markey consolidated support from progressive leaders and organizations emphasizing his Green New Deal and Medicare for All record, while Moulton’s calls for new leadership and moderate positioning failed to mobilize enough Democratic primary voters in the deep-blue state. Late polls had shown Markey ahead by 15–35 points, aligning with the final spread and limiting movement into wider or narrower victory ranges. Resolution now hinges on certified statewide totals, with limited scope for shifts absent major recount developments.