- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be less than 600,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 600,000 and 650,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 650,000 and 700,000?8¢8%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 700,000 and 750,000?64¢64%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 750,000 and 800,000?15¢15%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 800,000 and 850,000?12¢12%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 850,000 and 900,000?3¢3%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be 900,000 or more?5¢5%
High early voting—nearly 290,000 ballots returned by early November, up sharply from comparable 2022 levels with Democrats holding a substantial registration edge in returns—combined with a competitive U.S. Senate contest between incumbent Susan Collins and challenger Troy Jackson has driven trader consensus toward the 700,000–750,000 first-round turnout bin. Recent polling averages show Jackson ahead by roughly four points among likely voters, sustaining mobilization efforts on both sides in a state where ranked-choice voting and several write-in candidates apply. Forecasts from models projecting around 740,000 total ballots align with this range, reflecting elevated midterm participation without presidential coattails. No major last-minute disruptions have altered these dynamics.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.