- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?13¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?6¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?35¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?42¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?7¢
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Nicolás Maduro’s detention in a Brooklyn federal facility since a January 2026 U.S. military operation has anchored trader assessments for the prediction market on his eventual prison time. Pretrial proceedings, including a July 2026 hearing that set a June 2027 trial date, have highlighted active defense challenges to the narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges, alongside questions over the raid’s legality and potential head-of-state immunity claims. Venezuela’s ongoing political transition under interim leadership, coupled with U.S.-backed negotiations involving judicial reforms and amnesty measures, introduces variables that could affect case resolution or sentencing outcomes. The narrow gap between “no prison time” and longer terms reflects uncertainty over conviction prospects, plea negotiations, appeals, and external diplomatic developments before the scheduled trial.