- Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?6¢6%
President Lee Jae-myung’s Democratic Party holds a clear majority in the National Assembly, making it structurally difficult for the opposition People Power Party to secure the two-thirds vote required for impeachment. Recent polling shows his approval rating fluctuating in the mid-to-high 30s to low 40s, with no sustained collapse that would shift cross-party support. Opposition criticism has centered on budget debates, suspended criminal cases, and judicial nominations, but these have produced routine parliamentary friction rather than viable impeachment momentum. A 2026 petition drive reached signature thresholds yet stalled without committee advancement. Traders appear to view the combination of institutional barriers, party arithmetic, and absence of acute catalysts as preserving the current trajectory through the end of 2026.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.