- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?4¢
North Korea’s tightly controlled political system and absence of any verified developments pointing to leadership change underpin trader consensus that Kim Jong Un will remain Supreme Leader through year-end. Recent party charter revisions have further formalized his authority over appointments and institutions, while state media shows him actively overseeing missile tests, naval drills, and diplomatic engagements into October 2026. Succession signals center on grooming his daughter rather than any transition or removal. With only weeks left before the December 31, 2026 resolution date, the short timeframe leaves little room for sudden shifts absent an unforeseen health crisis, elite purge, or major external shock.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.