- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?>99¢>99%
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?<1¢<1%
Ayatollah Khamenei's official X accounts, including @khamenei_ir and related language-specific profiles, maintain a steady managed output of statements on Iranian foreign policy, resistance narratives, and U.S. relations. This pattern aligns with trader consensus favoring the 5-9 range at 97%, reflecting consistent weekly volumes from team-operated channels that repost or issue targeted messages without frequent surges. Recent activity through early November 2026 shows routine posts on geopolitical themes rather than accelerated volume tied to breaking events. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include sudden escalations in regional conflicts prompting additional official statements or changes in account management protocols.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between October 30, 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.