- Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?87¢
- Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?10¢
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kebbi State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Nasir Idris holds an 86.5% implied probability as the leading outcome due to his position as incumbent APC governor, recent unanimous party endorsement as consensus candidate for the 2027 election, and the APC’s organizational dominance across Kebbi’s 21 local government areas. Abubakar Malami sits at 10.1% after declaring his candidacy and securing the ADC nomination, positioning him as the main challenger focused on issues such as insecurity and agriculture, though on a smaller platform with limited historical success in the state. Multiple other aspirants register around 50% amid the absence of finalized opposition lineups or major shifts in party alignments. Recent developments, including Idris’s selection of a new running mate based on legal eligibility reviews and Malami’s formal emergence on the ADC ticket in mid-August 2026, have reinforced trader assessments of the APC’s structural advantages heading into the contest.