- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be less than 800,000?2¢2%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 800,000 and 900,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 900,000 and 1,000,000?<1¢<1%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,000,000 and 1,100,000?25¢25%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?48¢48%
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be 1,200,000 or more?15¢15%
Trader consensus centers on 1M–1.1M total votes as the most probable range for the Kansas Senate election. The competitive contest between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, who leads recent polling averages by roughly 3–4 points, has drawn unusually high attention and ad spending exceeding $70 million statewide. This dynamic, combined with national stakes for Senate control and economic pressures on Kansas agriculture, supports elevated participation relative to typical midterm baselines. Kansas midterm turnout has historically ranged 43–51% of registered voters (roughly 2 million total), producing totals near 900K–1.1M in recent cycles; current forecasts project around 1.145 million ballots. Recent early-voting patterns and the absence of major weather or procedural disruptions align with the leading 1M–1.1M and adjacent 1.1M–1.2M bins, while lower ranges reflect more traditional midterm participation.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.