- Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?3¢3%
Ramzan Kadyrov secured re-election as Chechen Head in September 2026 with 99.85 percent of the vote and began his fifth term the following month after receiving public endorsement from President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin statements continue to affirm his position, and Kadyrov has remained active in November 2026, addressing security incidents and receiving federal awards. Persistent speculation about his health, including prior reports of kidney issues, has fueled long-term succession discussions involving family members, yet no official transition process has advanced. Traders assessing removal timelines weigh this entrenched loyalty arrangement and institutional continuity against potential instability if health or federal priorities shift before the current term ends.
Rules
Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.