- JD Vance out as VP by December 31?5¢5%
JD Vance continues to serve as vice president without any confirmed moves toward resignation, removal, or replacement as of early November 2026. The most recent development shaping trader views is the Republican Party’s midterm losses, which handed Democrats control of both congressional chambers and prompted Vance to publicly attribute the results to the ongoing Iran conflict while distancing from aspects of the administration’s record. This has fueled speculation about 2028 succession dynamics, with attention shifting toward figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, though President Trump has not signaled any intent to alter the vice presidency. Historically, vice presidents depart early only in rare cases involving health, scandal, or voluntary resignation tied to higher office bids—none of which apply here. Key upcoming factors include the January 2027 start of the new Congress, which could alter legislative leverage, and any late-breaking foreign policy or domestic developments within the current term. Trader consensus currently prices low near-term probability of Vance leaving the role before standard term-end scenarios.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance ceases to be Vice-President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vance's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.