- Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?7¢7%
Japan maintains a measured approach to unidentified anomalous phenomena, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stating in May 2026 that any release of government-held UAP materials would occur only on a case-by-case basis after weighing risks to intelligence capabilities. Tokyo has confirmed possession of relevant footage and continues analyzing U.S. disclosures, including incidents near Japanese airspace, yet has established no dedicated UAP office or systematic declassification process. A cross-party parliamentary group has advocated for centralized handling, but structural priorities favor security coordination with allies over broad transparency. This framework underpins trader consensus against new Japanese file releases in 2026, though a major security incident, allied agreement, or legislative mandate could still prompt limited disclosure before year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japanese government declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, only information from the national Government of Japan will qualify. Information from individual prefectures or municipalities will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.