Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 3114¢
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?3¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israeli forces advanced north of the Litani River during intensified ground operations in May 2026 amid clashes with Hezbollah, establishing positions and issuing expanded evacuation orders in southern Lebanon. Subsequent U.S.-mediated talks produced framework agreements and pilot zones for phased Israeli withdrawals, with Lebanese Armed Forces deploying in select areas after simultaneous Hezbollah pullbacks north of the river. Implementation remains tied to Hezbollah's compliance on disarmament and cessation of fire, alongside security arrangements for northern Israel. Ongoing Washington-hosted negotiations and buffer zone management continue to shape timelines for any full withdrawal, with outcomes dependent on verified redeployments and enforcement of related ceasefire terms.