- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 16, 2026?100¢100%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?0¢0%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026?0¢0%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 9, 2026?0¢0%
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 11, 2026?0¢0%
US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon continue under a June 2026 framework agreement focused on phased IDF redeployment from southern buffer zones, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and verified Hezbollah disarmament. The most recent development is the postponement of the next formal round from Rome to October due to scheduling, with Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors instead set to meet at the US State Department in Washington to advance implementation. Lebanese officials have stated no new negotiations are underway until full withdrawal, while Israeli positions tie progress to security guarantees against Hezbollah rearmament. These steps reflect ongoing diplomatic efforts amid persistent border tensions and violations, with trader assessments of near-term meetings shaped by US facilitation and domestic political constraints on both sides.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Lebanon relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the Israel and Lebanon, and a consensus of credible reporting.