Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?8¢
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Negotiations between the United States and Iran over the latter’s nuclear program remain stalled on the fate of Tehran’s estimated 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Iran’s Supreme Leader has directed that the material not leave the country, while Iranian officials have signaled willingness only to dilute it domestically under IAEA monitoring rather than surrender or export it. U.S. statements in May and June 2026 claiming commitments to removal or destruction have been disputed by Tehran, which describes the issue as postponed. With the Polymarket resolution deadline of August 31, 2026, approaching and no verified public pledge secured, trader consensus reflects the persistent deadlock and limited near-term diplomatic momentum on this specific concession.