- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?3¢3%
Iran’s senior security official stated on November 11 that Tehran will not permit any enriched nuclear material to leave the country, citing a Supreme Leader directive and plans to retain it for civilian nuclear applications. This position follows months of US-Iran mediated talks via Qatar and Pakistan aimed at ending hostilities, easing sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with nuclear stockpile handling as a core issue. The IAEA reports no verified access to Iran’s roughly 440 kg of 60-percent enriched uranium since June 2025 strikes and continues to seek inspection rights at affected sites. Iranian officials have signaled openness to on-site down-blending or enrichment caps under supervision but reject outright transfer proposals. Upcoming IAEA Board meetings and any verified diplomatic progress could influence trader assessments of near-term agreement prospects.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.