- Imran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?8¢8%
Pakistan's jailed former prime minister Imran Khan continues to face multiple convictions and over 180 pending cases, with appeals in key matters such as the Al-Qadir Trust case adjourned amid disputes over legal access. Recent PTI protests, including the October 2026 Long March demanding his release and medical care, yielded only limited concessions like possible hospital visits after government talks stalled over counterterrorism demands and provincial control. The federal imposition of emergency rule in PTI stronghold Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in mid-October further weakened the party's leverage, while court orders for private medical examinations face government challenges. Analysts note no near-term path to full release before the year-end deadline, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 91% probability for "No."
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is released from prison by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, Imran Khan will be considered to have been released from prison only if he is not physically held in any Pakistani detention facility, including any prison, remand facility, or other place of formal custody, for a continuous period of at least 24 hours. A temporary release for medical treatment, a release on bail that is contingent on return to custody, or a release from one case while remaining in custody under another will not qualify. Release under house arrest, with travel restrictions, or with other non-custodial conditions following release will not prevent this market from resolving to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the State of Pakistan or Imran Khan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.