- Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by November 30?30¢30%
- Will Hung Cao be confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by December 31?30¢30%
President Trump nominated acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao on September 1, 2026, after Cao assumed the role in April following John Phelan's resignation. Cao, confirmed as under secretary in October 2025 on a 52-45 Senate vote, requires a congressional waiver under a 2021 law mandating at least seven years since active-duty retirement; he left service in 2021. The White House transmitted the nomination to the Senate on September 14, 2026, alongside related Navy leadership picks. Trader focus centers on waiver prospects in both chambers and confirmation timing amid ongoing operations, shipbuilding priorities, and the Senate calendar before midterms.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hung Cao is confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of the Navy by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hung Cao's nomination is formally withdrawn, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The Senate must confirm this nominee as Secretary of the Navy for this market to resolve to "Yes". Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Hung Cao's service as Acting Secretary of the Navy will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.