- Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?70¢70%
- Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?30¢30%
- Will Lin Szu-ming win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?<1¢<1%
- Will Chen Chien-hsien win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?<1¢<1%
Cheng Chao-fang leads Polymarket trader consensus for the November 28, 2026 Hsinchu County magistrate race, reflecting his June DPP nomination as Zhubei mayor and recent internal polls showing him ahead of KMT nominee Hsu Hsin-ying by 10–15 points. Cheng has drawn support from TPP voters and independents through emphasis on local governance, urban-rural balance, and cross-partisan appeals, aided by the collapse of local KMT-TPP coordination in Zhubei. Hsu secured her nomination via a March primary but faces challenges from lingering party divisions and uneven geographic strength outside urban centers. Mixed external surveys, including one showing Hsu ahead by 6 points, and low probabilities for independents like Chu Ting-yu underscore the two-candidate dynamic heading into the final weeks.
Rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).