- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?21¢
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?78¢
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?1¢
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?<1¢
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing geopolitical disruptions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, driving trader consensus toward the 25-49 ship bin at 77.5% implied probability. Heightened war-risk premiums at roughly 40 times normal levels, combined with active U.S. and Iranian blockades, repeated projectile incidents, and major carriers rerouting or suspending passages, have reduced visible AIS-tracked transits to low single digits per day. IMF PortWatch data showed just 3 transits on August 23 against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 daily, while Kpler reported roughly 121 crossings for the prior week amid widespread AIS-dark activity and ship-to-ship shuttling. These dynamics, alongside Brent crude near $90, sustain elevated risk aversion and keep higher-volume outcomes at negligible odds ahead of week-of-August-24 resolution.