- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?2¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?2¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?5¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?10¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?7¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?2¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?5¢
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?7¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.78% reflect heavy U.S. debt issuance, persistent fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in national debt, and sticky core inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target. Market-implied term premiums remain elevated as traders price limited near-term easing from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, who has held the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% while signaling vigilance on price stability. Recent nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases have shown modest cooling, yet supply dynamics from record Treasury auctions and corporate borrowing continue to cap downside in long-term rates. Key near-term catalysts include the September 10–11 inflation prints and the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated dot-plot projections, which could shift expectations for the policy path into 2027.