- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?31¢31%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?17¢17%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?12¢12%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?6¢6%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?4¢4%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?3¢3%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?2¢2%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?2¢2%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?2¢2%
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?1¢1%
The 10-year Treasury yield stands near 5.08% as of late October 2026, near multi-year highs, amid sticky inflation readings with September CPI at 3.7% and core measures above the Fed’s 2% target. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to a 3.75–4% funds range, combined with signals of potential further tightening, has reinforced higher-for-longer expectations, lifting real yields and term premia more than breakeven inflation components. Strong GDP growth near 2.2%, robust AI-driven corporate borrowing, and elevated Treasury issuance have added upward pressure on the curve. Traders are monitoring the late-October FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases for signs that could ease or sustain these dynamics through year-end.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).