This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 1 12:00 PM ET to September 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Recent weekly tweet counts for Elon Musk have shown high variability, with August 2026 settling in bands from 40-64 up to 320-339 and a monthly total near 834, establishing trader consensus around the 180-199 range as the modal outcome. This positioning reflects his typical rhythm of 25-50 posts daily, influenced by X engagement patterns, Grok and xAI developments, and company news cycles rather than sustained high-volume political periods. With leading bins tightly clustered from 140-259, the market highlights uncertainty from unpredictable spikes tied to breaking events or lulls during focused business activity, underscoring the platform's sensitivity to real-time developments in early September.