- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?2¢
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?<1¢
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?20¢
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?50¢
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?24¢
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?7¢
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 3 12:00 PM ET to September 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Elon Musk’s established pattern of high-volume X activity, often exceeding 15 posts daily across original content, replies, and reposts on AI, Tesla, and SpaceX topics, positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite at 50% implied probability. Recent August data showing roughly 119 qualifying posts in a single week reinforces trader expectations for consistent engagement through early September, with no major product launches, regulatory hearings, or personal announcements confirmed that would spike or suppress volume over the Sept. 3-5 window. The narrower 65-89 band at 23.5% captures upside scenarios from sustained Grok promotion or viral threads, while sub-40 outcomes at 19.5% would require an unusually quiet stretch atypical for Musk’s cadence.