- Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?5¢5%
Recent internal dissent within the Liberal Democrats, including frontbench resignations by MPs Charlie Maynard and Alison Bennett in early October 2026, briefly fueled rumors of a no-confidence vote against Ed Davey. However, a marathon parliamentary party meeting on October 13 produced no formal challenge or ballot, with deputy leader Daisy Cooper and a majority of MPs publicly affirming overwhelming support for Davey to continue. He pledged to embrace further changes and maintain a united front ahead of the next general election. With polling stagnant but no viable alternative leadership candidate emerging and only weeks remaining until year-end, the absence of sustained momentum for removal underpins trader consensus that Davey will remain in post through December 31.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ed Davey ceases to be Leader of the Liberal Democrats for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ed Davey's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.