- Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?<1¢<1%
Mississippi's Senate race has produced an extraordinarily narrow margin of roughly 43 votes out of nearly one million cast as of early November 4, with Democrat Scott Colom holding a minimal lead over incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith amid remaining affidavit ballots and a near-certain recount. Minnesota's contest, by contrast, delivered a decisive double-digit margin for Democrat Peggy Flanagan over Republican Michele Tafoya, consistent with pre-election polling and fully reported results. This stark difference in final vote spreads has driven trader consensus toward Mississippi as the closer race. Late certification of Mississippi's outstanding ballots or any recount adjustments could alter the exact margin or winner, though the scale of the gap relative to Minnesota's outcome makes a reversal of the market's positioning highly improbable.
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Minnesota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Mississippi Senate election. This market will resolve to "Mississippi" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Mississippi has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Minnesota Senate election. If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.